As of January 1, 2030, the United States will effectively be a smoke-free society.
According to the CDC, smoking prevalence among U.S. adults (18 and older) declined from 42.4 percent of the overall population in 1965 to 25.5 in 1994, and that downward trend is continuing. Daily smoking rates for high school seniors in the United States, however, have been climbing since 1992, especially among females.
This claim will be judged TRUE if the United States is effectively a smoke-free society by January 1, 2030. That means that 5 percent or less of the population smokes tobacco products on a regular basis as of the January 1, 2030. If these conditions are fulfilled, YES claims will pay $1. If these conditions are not fulfilled, NO claims will pay $1.
This claim predicts that the habit of tobacco smoking as it has been known over the past several centuries will all but cease by 2030. It should not be construed as an attempt to judge the rate of nicotine addiction in the U.S.
Definition of Terms:
1.) "U.S. Population": 5 percent or less of the overall population aged 12 or higher of the United States of America, as measured by the latest widely respected statistical research or polling source (CDC, Gallup, CBS, etc.) available at the judging date. Specific prevalence rates for various segments of the population (women, men, minorities) may be higher than 5 percent as long as the aggregate rate for the population as a whole is 5 percent or less.
2.) "Tobacco Products": Cigarettes, pipe tobacco, cigars, or any other form of smoked tobacco or smoking product containing tobacco. This DOES NOT include smokeless tobacco, smoking products that do not contain tobacco in any quantity (marijuana, opium, etc.) or nicotine delivery systems such as patches, injections, gums or pills.
3.) "Regular Basis": The rate specified by the statistical source chosen for the judging of the claim; however, this rate must be at least the yearly consumption of one serving of a tobacco product (1 cigarette, 1 cigar, 1 gram pipe tobacco, etc.).
1.) Tobacco Bans: This claim shall be judged TRUE immediately upon the complete banning, either by the federal government or by the governments of every state in the union, of tobacco smoking products before the judging date. This ban must be complete; tobacco smoking products must be completely criminalized and removed from commercial, medical or religious availability.
2.) Demise of the United States: This claim shall be judged FALSE immediately upon any date before the judging date where either a.) the United States of America should cease to exist as a nation; or b.) the entire population of the United States of America should cease to exist.
3.) Differing Results: The statistical data upon which this claim is based will be based on the most recently released data for as of January 1, 2030. Should different statistical sources announce different results of smoking prevalence, this claim shall be judged TRUE if any one of those sources announces a rate of 5 percent or less.
Effective dates of claim:
Except in the event of the extenuating cirumstances named and outlined above, this claim may only be judged after midnight GMT on January 1, 2030. Judgements made after that time will be based on data available as of January 1, 2030. Even if smoking prevalence falls to 0 percent prevalence before the judgement date, the claim could still be judged FALSE if the prevalence rate returns to above 5 percent by the judgement date.
I expect to take statistical results only from "major" surveys, which unfortunately will have to be interpreted in the time frame of the judgement. The tie breaker will be the *latest* available data among such surveys; if two become available at the same time, that reporting the higher prevalence of smoking will prevail.
Since the claim is about the population aged 12 or higher, I may have to interpolate, discard, or scale results based on different age groups of the population, possibly from different surveys, to arrive at a result appropriate for evaluating the claim.