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Claim Taiw - Taiwan + mainland unif by 2025

Category: News:World News bid 3, ask 5, last 4
Owner:0, Bank
Judge:98, kravar
due date:2025/01/07

The Claim

YES pays 1.00 if on or before January 1, 2025, the government on mainland China exercises effective sovereignty on the island of Taiwan. Otherwise, YES pays 0.00.

In the following,

  • "PRC" refers to the People's Republic of China.
  • "Taiwan" refers to the island of Taiwan (not including any other territories or islands).

For the purpose of this claim, it is considered that in 1995, the PRC exercises effective sovereignty on mainland China, but does not exercise effective sovereignty on Taiwan. The following reasons are cited, and some or all of these or similar criteria should be used in judging the claim in the future:

  • An entry visa issued by the PRC is not usable for travel to Taiwan.
  • The currency of the PRC is not legal tender on Taiwan. (In 1995, the two distinct currencies are the renminbi and the New Taiwan dollar).
  • Postage stamps issued by the PRC cannot be used to send mail from Taiwan.
  • The country code for international long distance phone calls to the PRC cannot be used to make phone calls to Taiwan. (In 1995, the two distinct country codes are +86 and +886).
  • The two-letter country abbreviation used in the domain names of Internet sites in the PRC is not used in the domain names of Internet sites on Taiwan. (In 1995, the two distinct country codes are "cn" and "tw").
  • The National Day holiday of the PRC is not observed as a National Day holiday on Taiwan. (In 1995, the two National Day holidays are October 1 and October 10).
  • The flag of the PRC does not fly over government buildings and military installations on Taiwan.
  • In certain major international sporting and cultural events, representatives from Taiwan participate simultaneously with but under a separate name from representatives from the PRC. (In 1995, examples of such events include the Asian Games, and representatives from Taiwan participate under names such as "ROC", "ROC on Taiwan", "Chinese Taipei", etc).

NOTE: Diplomatic recognition by various countries in the world or membership in the United Nations is specifically excluded as a criterion in judging this claim. In general, de facto considerations shall take precedence over de jure considerations in judging this claim.

The status of Kinmen Island (Jinmen), Matsu Island (Mazu), or the Penghu Islands is not relevant to this claim, which applies solely to the island of Taiwan.

For this claim to be judged YES, the government that exercises effective sovereignty on mainland China must also exercise effective sovereignty over substantially the entire island of Taiwan (with the sole exceptions being foreign consulates, foreign military bases, etc. that enjoy extraterritorial status by international treaty).

If the PRC ceases to exist, changes its borders, or changes its name prior to 2025, the claim remains valid and the term "PRC" above shall apply to its successor government or organization, which is defined as the entity that exercises effective sovereignty over the city of Beijing. That is, in this situation, YES will pay 1.00 if the entity exercising effective sovereignty over the city of Beijing also exercises effective sovereignty over the island of Taiwan.

For judging purposes, the following are cited as historical instances when particular geographical territories came under the effective sovereignty of a different political entity, either temporarily or permanently, and either by peaceful negotiation or otherwise:

  • 1935 Ethiopia / Italy
  • 1938 Austria / Germany
  • 1938 Sudetenland / Germany
  • 1940 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania / Soviet Union
  • 1961 Goa / India
  • 1964 Zanzibar / Tanganyika
  • 1975 East Timor / Indonesia
  • 1982 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) / Argentina
  • 1990 East Germany (GDR) / West Germany (FRG)
  • 1990 Kuwait / Iraq

In addition, it is anticipated that the following will also become such a historical instance, based on treaties and agreements in effect as of 1995:

  • 1997 Hong Kong / People's Republic of China

The wording of this claim was frozen on September 18, 1995, prior to the start of trading.

Judge's Statement


The Market

Price Plot for life of Taiw
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