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Claim iPad - iPad sales $15 billion by 2013

Category: Science & Technology:Computer Industry Finance:US Finance JUDGED at 100
Owner:4176, DavidSJ
Judge:97, Loophole
due date:2014/05/01

The Claim

In at least one of Apple Inc's fiscal years ending on or before December 31, 2013 (US/Pacific), the iPad and related products and services will have accounted for at least 15 billion USD of net sales.

If possible, this will be determined from Apple Inc's 10-K SEC filings (and amendments issued prior to the judgment date of this claim), under the "Net Sales by Product" table, referring to the line item entitled "iPad and related products and services", or similarly worded. If any 10-K filing lacks such an item, the judge should attempt to identify a line item with substantially similar meaning. If this is impossible, and no other authoritative reference from either Apple Inc, the U.S. Federal Government, or the State of California is available, the judge should reference the best estimates of reliable publications.

Apple Inc's fiscal year has historically ended in September. As of claim creation date, its SEC filings were available here. In the fiscal year ended September 26, 2009, the Net Sales by Product were reported by Apple Inc as follows (in millions of USD):

Other music related products and services4,036
iPhone and related products and services13,033
Peripherals and other hardware1,475
Software, service and other sales2,411

Judge's Statement

"related products and services" sounds to me like it could include revenue from apps sales on the platform, but Apple's 10-k treats software and services as a separate category and does not give enough information to determine which software/services are related to which product lines. For example, on page 10/11, the "iPhone and related products and services" has footnote (e), while "Software, service, and other sales" has footnote (g), which are:

(e) Derived from handset sales, carrier agreements, and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories (g) Includes sales of Apple-branded operating system and application software, third-party software, AppleCare and Internet services

Given Apple's organization of its reported data, I would include a net sales line item from the 10-K labeled "iPad and related products and services" but not one labeled "Software, service, and other sales" unless the latter clearly includes only sales attributable to the iPad product line.

The Market

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Current ask price: 100
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