This claim is meant to assess the most likely highest level removal from office of people in the chain of command related to the recent Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal before the 2004 US presidential elections.
If President Bush or Vice President Cheney are no longer office before the presidential election, this claim pays 100
If Donald Rumsfeld is not longer Secretary of Defense, this claim pays 80
If 1 member of the join chiefs of staff are no longer in office, this claim pays 40, if two this claim pays 60.
If Ricardo Sanchez is no longer commander of the Iraqi field of operations or a similar scale miltary operation this claim pays 20.
If elections are not held by 2004/11/10, this claim pays 100.
I will judge this claim by the event with the highest payout to YES holders. That is, the payouts aren't culmative. If Rumsfeld and another member of the joint chiefs of staff resigns (by election time), this contract pays 80. There have been reports that the Bush administration does have plans for delaying elections in case of significant terrorist attack or other seriously disruptive events.
But it's conceivable that such delays would be local. I will rule that elections are considered "held" by a date, if half or more of the states by number have held presidential elections on or before that date. Eg, if 25 states (out of 50 states) hold elections on November 10, even if they are the smallest states in the US and contain a small fraction of the voters of the US. Washington DC and the US territories aren't considered states.
For purposes of this claim, US presidential elections are considered held on November 2. I'm currently close to judging this claim at 0.