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Claim L23Y99 - Lottery with 23% prob,Dec 1999

Category: Science & Technology:Idea Futures (and Experimental Claims) JUDGED at 0
Owner:119, David Blenkinsop
Judge:723, Mario Hilgemeier
due date:1999/12/11

The Claim

This is a claim based on the Lotto 6/49 lottery (this is the main Canada-wide lottery, not to be confused with British Columbia's BC49 lottery, nor with the Ontario49, Lottario, etc). For the claim to be a YES, the numbers "48", or "49", or both, must be present in the regular 6 number draw on the eleventh of December, that's Saturday, Dec 11, 1999, on the Lotto 6/49. In such a case, the claim will pay FX$1.00 on each YES coupon. If the Lotto 6/49 draw is made for that date, but neither #48 nor #49 are in the 6 regular draw numbers, the claim will pay FX$1.00 on each NO coupon.

In the event that the Lotto 6/49 draw for the specified date does not take place, the judge should then specify, in advance, an alternate lottery draw as nearly identical to the originally anticipated one as possible, so as to settle the claim after the original Dec 11, 1999 deadline. *Note that the true probability forecast for this claim is a probability of 0.232* for the actual fulfillment (i.e. for the YES on the outcome) of the claim. The calculation of this 0.232 probability may be found in the initial fx-propose mailing list discussion of the claim, in the archives at http://www.ideosphere.com/fx/lists/fx-propose/1220.html.

Purpose and Background

The purpose of this claim is to allow a general comparison of the market price with the known probability for the claim, to see how well the idea of "price as probability forecast" will tend to hold true in this case. A current source of Canadian lottery numbers may be found at http://bud.ica.net/. Those interested in more details about probability estimates in discrete sampling situations may wish to consult Chapter 3 of E.T. Jaynes' textbook Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, currently available at http://bayes.wustl.edu/, Jaynes' formula "3-18" being particularly relevant.

Judge's Statement

The results available at worldwide results / lottery will be used. If there is no draw in the lottery on Saturday, 1999-12-11, the next draw after that will be used.

If there is no next draw, i.e. if the lottery is discontinued permanently, a date of a lottery draw between 1998-10-03 and 1999-12-04 will be selected randomly by the judge. The numbers of that draw will be used to determine the claim value.

There was a draw in the Canada lottery 6/49 on 1999-12-11. The numbers were: 4, 9, 11, 16, 17, 44 (Bonus number 31). The claim was judged NO.

The Market

Your Buy YES Orders Players Buying YES Coupons
Price Plot for life of L23Y99
Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 855
Players participating: 16
View the ticker for this Claim.

Your cash balance: 3288.35
Your holdings in this Claim: 0
Your UID:
Your password:
Your Sell YES Orders Players Selling YES Coupons

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