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Claim NLud - Neo-Luddite K. Sale wins bet

Category: Science & Technology:General Science bid 14, ask 16, last 15
Owner:2, Chris Hibbert
Judge:306, SMWinnie
created:1995/07/04
due date:2020/05/01

The Claim

Kirkpatrick Sale will win his bet with Kevin Kelly. See Wired 3.06 page 216. Mr. Kelly proposed the bet, saying, "I bet you $1000 that in the year 2020, we're not even close ot the kind of disaster you describe--a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be close." Each of the parties has written a check to the publisher they share, Bill Patrick at Addison Wesley.

Judge's Statement

The Wired article referenced above can now be found in a new location in Wired's archive.

YES coupons in NLud are, broadly speaking, a bet that disaster *does* occur. I will not "override" Bill Patrick's judgement.

I will judge based on the intent of this claim, if I perceive such intent to be obvious. If such intent is ambiguous I will judge on the basis of the precise wording. If both are ambiguous, I will look for a solution which follows IF/FX precedent insofar as such precedent is apparent to me and applicable to the claim. I will seek the guidance of the claim's owner/author in interpreting the claim. It's his or her question - s/he ought to get the answer sought. If I believe this claim to have met a YES or NO condition, and if I believe judgement will be controversial, I will post a prospective judgement to fx-discuss and forestall entering the judgement for a comment period to be announced in the post.

The Market

Your Buy YES Orders Players Buying YES Coupons
EraseQuantityPrice
     1 @ 1   crandles (7886)
     1 @ 1   whojgalt (4051)
     1 @ 1   haggis (2155)
   150 @ 3   Chris Hibbert (2)
   100 @ 4   stem (288)
     1 @ 5   Loophole (97)
    10 @ 5   Groove (268)
    83 @ 5   fxgood (10151)
     1 @ 6   Loophole (97)
     1 @ 7   Loophole (97)
     1 @ 8   Loophole (97)
     1 @ 9   Loophole (97)
     1 @ 10  Loophole (97)
    10 @ 10  shdw (5887)
     1 @ 11  Loophole (97)
    18 @ 11  Lorne (676)
     1 @ 12  Loophole (97)
    10 @ 12  Telemachus (1044)
     1 @ 13  Loophole (97)
     1 @ 14  Loophole (97)
     4 @ 14  PenDragon (3991)
     
Price Plot for life of NLud
Last trade price: 15
Current ask price: 16
Current bid price: 14
Pairs outstanding: 1193
Players participating: 52
View the ticker for this Claim.

Your cash balance: 3580.58
Your holdings in this Claim: -62
Your UID:
Your password:
Your Sell YES Orders Players Selling YES Coupons
EraseQuantityPrice
     3 @ 16  twist (9973)
     1 @ 16  Loophole (97)
     6 @ 17  twist (9973)
     1 @ 17  Loophole (97)
     7 @ 18  twist (9973)
     1 @ 18  Loophole (97)
     8 @ 19  twist (9973)
     1 @ 19  Loophole (97)
     5 @ 20  twist (9973)
     1 @ 20  Loophole (97)
    10 @ 21  twist (9973)
     1 @ 21  Loophole (97)
     1 @ 22  Loophole (97)
     1 @ 23  Loophole (97)
     1 @ 24  Loophole (97)
    70 @ 25  Chris Hibbert (2)
     1 @ 25  Loophole (97)
    80 @ 30  Chris Hibbert (2)
     1 @ 33  GTmechanic (9750)
     1 @ 34  ezrollers (7692)
   100 @ 35  Chris Hibbert (2)
     1 @ 35  PenDragon (3991)
     9 @ 36  makani (5659)
    20 @ 37  patrik (483)
    30 @ 39  patrik (483)
   170 @ 40  PeaceFrog (2359)
   100 @ 45  DiamondInTheRough (1682)
     2 @ 45  PenDragon (3991)
    13 @ 47  DonHo (1704)
    11 @ 49  Sam Baron (2331)
    51 @ 50  gmoney (3749)
     4 @ 55  PenDragon (3991)
   100 @ 60  sigma (1328)
     1 @ 80  sigma (1328)
   939 @ 99  Henry (809)
     1 @ 99  Jonathan Kaplan (4493)
     

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