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Claim Starsh - First Starship paying launch

Category: Science & Technology:Space bid 0, ask 100, last 0
Owner:7886, crandles
Judge:TBD
created:2021/02/15
due date:2024/06/01

The Claim

This is a scaled claim to estimate date of first successful commercial orbital launch of SpaceX's Starship.

The claim pays 100 if launch occurs before 31 August 2021. It pays 3 less for each calendar month that expires without a first commercial launch.

I.e. If launch is in September 2021 UTC then the claim pays 97. If launch is in October 2021 UTC then the claim pays 94. If launch is in August 2022 UTC then the claim pays 64. If launch is in September 2023 UTC then the claim pays 25. If launch is in May 2024 UTC then the claim pays 1. If launch has not occurred by 31 May 2024 UTC then the claim pays 0.

To be commercial there has to be a paying customer that is not parent company or subsidiary company of SpaceX nor can it be a subsidiary of same ultimate controlling company, nor can it be a company whose majority owner is Elon Musk or a fairly close relative of Elon Musk. So the payload being Starlink satellites would not qualify if Starlink is owned by SpaceX or if it is spun off into a subsidiary company but might qualify if there is no longer a majority of shares owned by SpaceX group or relatives of Elon Musk at the time the contract is negotiated. A free publicity stunt launch of a Tesla car would not qualify but if there is more than a token payment and Tesla Inc is not controlled by SpaceX nor by Elon Musk and relatives then it could qualify.

A fairly substantial discount for being willing to fly on the first orbital launch attempt would still be likely to be considered a commercial launch. A token payment of $50ꯠ or less could well be considered non commercial. If it is unclear if the payment is only a token amount then the judge shall have discretion over how long to wait for more information and what to consider to decide if the launch is commercial.

A launch that successfully launches satellites to close to their intended orbit shall be considered successful regardless of whether the rockets land successfully. If SpaceX changes the name of what it now calls Starship (together with its SuperHeavy booster), the first commercial orbital launch of that rocket system will still count for determining the value of this claim regardless of its name at the time.

If there is a string of launches of e.g. Starlink Satellites that don't count as commercial launches then the date of the second successful such launch shall be used for this claim. (This as a proxy for when the rocket is commercially operating.)

Judge's Statement

None

The Market

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